Where are Canada and the U.S. in the business cycle?

Each section answers one question with live data from the Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada and the St. Louis Fed.

• OutputAre the Canadian and U.S. economies expanding or entering contraction?In Q2 2026, Canada's real GDP grew 3.3% at an annual rate; the U.S. grew 1.5% in Q2 2026.14 series, latest data 2026-08-01
• LabourIs labour utilization tightening or softening, and how are wage pressures evolving?Unemployment is 6.4% in Canada and 4.1% in the U.S. as of Aug 2026.15 series, latest data 2026-09-01
• PricesWhere are cost-push pressures relative to consumer inflation, and are central banks hitting their targets?Headline inflation is 3.0% in Canada and 3.7% in the U.S.; the Bank of Canada's CPI-trim core measure is 1.9%.15 series, latest data 2026-09-01
• Central banksWhat is the monetary policy stance, and what is the yield curve signalling about credit conditions?The Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.25%, against 3.63% for U.S. fed funds. Canada's 10-year yield sits 0.62 points above the 2-year.28 series, latest data 2026-09-01
• SentimentWhere are consumer and business conditions pointing over the next 3 to 6 months?Canada's OECD leading indicator is 102.0, above its long-term trend of 100; the U.S. reading is 101.0 (Aug 2026).16 series, latest data 2026-08-01
• Trade & FXHow sensitive is the Canadian economy to currency swings, oil prices and cross-border trade shocks?The Canadian dollar is averaging 71.8 U.S. cents this month, with WTI crude near $98. Over the past year, their monthly moves had a correlation of 0.18.16 series, latest data 2026-09-01
• Sector rotationHow is capital rotating across sectors in Canada and the U.S.?Over the past 12 months, Energy led in Canada (+35 points vs the TSX 60) and Energy led in the U.S. (+26 vs the S&P 500); Tech lagged most in Canada (−28).
• Forecast & scenariosWhat comes next, and how would a rate shock ripple through sectors?Chronos-2 puts Canadian inflation at 2.6% in 12 months (80% range 1.4–4.1%) and the Bank of Canada's policy rate near 2.60%.